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Jan 29, 2013
01/13
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the debt ceiling debate has been delayed for three months no. reason why the market can't keep running at this point just because there's no obvious catalyst to run into, but at some point, whether it's the revenue growth or something out of washington, you know, i think we'll -- we're due for a pause if not outright correction. >> fundamentals matter. >> sooner or later they do. >> please, go ahead. >> just going to mention two cautionary notes here. even though i'm pretty constructive on the economy i'll give you a good reason to worry about april sis the sequestering right? i think markets have gotten very comfortable with the washington dysfunction going on because they keep going up at the deadline and then fix the problem without damage to the economy and my sense is sequester happening, $100 billion out of the economy, is actually on the high side and i don't think that's built into the market and the other thing, the last time the market was at these levels, the size of the economy was only a little bit smaller than it was now, profits a
the debt ceiling debate has been delayed for three months no. reason why the market can't keep running at this point just because there's no obvious catalyst to run into, but at some point, whether it's the revenue growth or something out of washington, you know, i think we'll -- we're due for a pause if not outright correction. >> fundamentals matter. >> sooner or later they do. >> please, go ahead. >> just going to mention two cautionary notes here. even though i'm...
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Feb 6, 2013
02/13
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there are other taxes put in place and the debt ceiling will be dealt with. that will be a big battle between entitlement cuts and raising the debt ceiling. i think all these issues will bear on the market when people are very enthusiastic about it. i think this market is vulnerable. >> interesting to date, with all the noise in the market, stocks have been able to put on pretty good ear plugs. >> that's often the case. you've been around long enough. sometimes the market sloughs off bad news until it doesn't. >> that's for sure. >> how about your earnings forecast? 100 bucks, less than many people on the street are expecting. how does that mesh with the fact you're coming off a pretty good earnings season. expectations have come down but two-thirds of the companies have beaten. >> two-thirds of companies have beaten but you look at a chart of expectations, they're coming down. earnings expectations are rolling over and performance is coming down. the s&p has been able to earn $25 or better a quarter. i think we will see quarters $23. i don't think the market
there are other taxes put in place and the debt ceiling will be dealt with. that will be a big battle between entitlement cuts and raising the debt ceiling. i think all these issues will bear on the market when people are very enthusiastic about it. i think this market is vulnerable. >> interesting to date, with all the noise in the market, stocks have been able to put on pretty good ear plugs. >> that's often the case. you've been around long enough. sometimes the market sloughs...
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Jan 31, 2013
01/13
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>> i don't think we're going to see the debt ceiling being an issue. i think it would be foolish to hold the nation hostage by having a fight over the debt ceiling. i think we'll see it with sequestration. that's coming march 1st, not too far away and with the budget and the continuing resolutions. i think that's where the real fight will be, and i think we're seeing the consequences of an economy that's not investing, a government that has to pull back and what we saw in the gdp report yesterday, and, you know, who knows what we'll see tomorrow on the jobs report, but it's slowed down the economy and we're all waiting. >> absolutely. mark, good to have you on the program. thanks very much. >> thanks, maria, thanks, scott. >> we'll see you soon. the dow on pace for the best in 19 years or 24 years. it all depends on how you finish this hour. might be surprised to know that hewlett-packard is the top dow performer this month, and bank of america the worst. a quick reversal there of fortune because that was the exact opposite what have happened in 2012.
>> i don't think we're going to see the debt ceiling being an issue. i think it would be foolish to hold the nation hostage by having a fight over the debt ceiling. i think we'll see it with sequestration. that's coming march 1st, not too far away and with the budget and the continuing resolutions. i think that's where the real fight will be, and i think we're seeing the consequences of an economy that's not investing, a government that has to pull back and what we saw in the gdp report...
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Jan 31, 2013
01/13
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. >> as expected, the united states senate has just voted to extend the nation's debt ceiling for multiple months. the new deadline now will be may 19th, and that tees up now the next fiscal fight here in washington which will come on march the 1st. it will be over the so-called sequester. all of those automatic spending cuts, will they be allowed to go into effect? that will now be the next big question we wrestle with here in washington, maria. >> thanks so much. >> january jobs figures taking center stage first thing tomorrow morning as the white house shutters its jobs council. hampton pearson on what's sure to move the markets. >> reporter: hi, maria. tomorrow's job reports will have two part, the headline numbers on jobs and the unemployment rate. our cnbc survey predicts employers increasing non-farm payrolls by 1 of,000 jobs versus 155,000 in december. the unemployment rate holding steady at 7.8%. now today we heard that first-time unemployment claims actually jumped by 38000 to a seasonally adjusted 368,000, that according to the labor department. lost in yesterday's focus on nega
. >> as expected, the united states senate has just voted to extend the nation's debt ceiling for multiple months. the new deadline now will be may 19th, and that tees up now the next fiscal fight here in washington which will come on march the 1st. it will be over the so-called sequester. all of those automatic spending cuts, will they be allowed to go into effect? that will now be the next big question we wrestle with here in washington, maria. >> thanks so much. >> january...
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Jan 30, 2013
01/13
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i think the general consensus is that nothing will happen to munis in the debt ceiling talks, but there is a lot of talk about tax reform having some form of tax or limit on deductions for municipalities, and i -- i definitely think that's a possibility. >> okay. so the impact is you're worried about this? >> i'm concerned. i think that everything is on the table. that's what we've heard from washington, and it's hard to make the argument for munis against the argument for charitable deductions, against the argument for mortgage deductions, so i do think it's something that people need to be cautious about. as a result if i were an investor right now, i would be investing with a shorter duration. and i've said this a lot over the last couple of years, with all the things that have gone on, i would have a professional managing my municipal money, whether it's in a mutual fund, an etf or separately managed account. >> having said that, what are your picks, a few muni picks? >> i did long picks though with a short call so the duration is small. i wanted to give people an example of what th
i think the general consensus is that nothing will happen to munis in the debt ceiling talks, but there is a lot of talk about tax reform having some form of tax or limit on deductions for municipalities, and i -- i definitely think that's a possibility. >> okay. so the impact is you're worried about this? >> i'm concerned. i think that everything is on the table. that's what we've heard from washington, and it's hard to make the argument for munis against the argument for...
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Feb 1, 2013
02/13
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extension of the debt ceiling for two years. clarification on europe. first, the recession needs to stabilize, but beyond that, policy initiatives clearly indicate a road to political and fiscal and banking reforms and an indication that europe is serious about improving competitiveness. resumption of growth in emerging economies, like china, and finally the federal successfully engineering a modest increase in interest rates without unleashing runaway inflation. maria, these are tall orders, i know, but resolution of all these issues would be a huge boost to business confidence, capital expenditures and hiring would increase dramatically and revenues would rise, and that's what we need, maria. back to you. >> that's some list, bob. >> pretty ambitious. >> we'll be watching that. not everybody is buying into this bull market theory, by the way. pimco's bill gross is actually warning investors to be afraid, and i mean very afraid, of how inflation and the flood of cheap money will impact investments from here on out. bill joins me exclusively from pimco
extension of the debt ceiling for two years. clarification on europe. first, the recession needs to stabilize, but beyond that, policy initiatives clearly indicate a road to political and fiscal and banking reforms and an indication that europe is serious about improving competitiveness. resumption of growth in emerging economies, like china, and finally the federal successfully engineering a modest increase in interest rates without unleashing runaway inflation. maria, these are tall orders, i...
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Jan 29, 2013
01/13
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ceiling deby the and at record highs in the market. does this become helpful. alan greenspan used to look at the stock market and say there's a wrelt effect. when the stock market is going up people aren't worried about debt. are we fooling ourselves that we're looking at the market going higher and a wealth effect going on and there's real problems that have yet to be addressed in. >> that's a great point. in each of these moments they are responding to two things. kind of an action forcing moment. we had the cliff and now we'll have the sequester and continuing res hughes, and the market wants us to resolve these issues and each time we skirt around them, again, with the bare minimum, but we don't really fix the problem, and my concern is the market responds positively because we don't have the immediate problem, but we're really putting cap on what kind of growth, recovery, real competitiveness we can have in the economy until we fix the debt overhang. what you're saying it lulls us into a complacent moment and people are saying, we
ceiling deby the and at record highs in the market. does this become helpful. alan greenspan used to look at the stock market and say there's a wrelt effect. when the stock market is going up people aren't worried about debt. are we fooling ourselves that we're looking at the market going higher and a wealth effect going on and there's real problems that have yet to be addressed in. >> that's a great point. in each of these moments they are responding to two things. kind of an action...
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but let's assume because the debt ceiling doesn't kick in till august, i believe that's what we'll have, but let's add these together. let's say you're right, 30 billion. but let's -- jobs overseas, we can dial that however we want because it's all -- a huge loss of revenue, corporate jets, tehre are all kind of things that are low-hanging fruit. >> you've heard the republicans across the board here. they're saying they're done with revenues for 2013. >> george, the american people are on our side. the american people don't believe in these austere things. we believe that the rich should contribute. we believe we should fill those tax loopholes, get rid of them, i should say, and that's where we need to go. >> but that's a debate that's been had, as you know, for the last couple of months, last couple of years and doesn't appear it will get solved next month so the sequester will hit. >> george, that's what they said two or three days before the fiscal cliff. no revenue. well, we got about $700 billion in revenue. there's still more we can do. >> are you saying that for -- to lift the s
but let's assume because the debt ceiling doesn't kick in till august, i believe that's what we'll have, but let's add these together. let's say you're right, 30 billion. but let's -- jobs overseas, we can dial that however we want because it's all -- a huge loss of revenue, corporate jets, tehre are all kind of things that are low-hanging fruit. >> you've heard the republicans across the board here. they're saying they're done with revenues for 2013. >> george, the american people...
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Feb 2, 2013
02/13
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we are not going to have a debt ceiling default crisis. we're not going you have to a government shutdown. yeah, we'll probably have sequester for a few months. but i think these great epic struggles that worried the markets are starting to fade as a strategic policy. >> do you think we veal the sequester? do you think it happens, greg? >> for a while, yeah. i think on march 1 we begin at least on defense and discretionary spending. if there's enough sidewalking maybe by late spring, early sum eshg it gets undone. we'll have that. there's still some headwinds. there's this and the higher payroll tax. maybe first-half growth would be a little slow but i think the storm is sending us a message that by the second half things could be looking much better. >> this week, austin, we moved closer to the automatic across the board spending cuts, the sequester that president obama promised us would never happen. listen a few months ago. >> first of all, the sequester is not something that i propose, it's something congress has po pro-posed. it will
we are not going to have a debt ceiling default crisis. we're not going you have to a government shutdown. yeah, we'll probably have sequester for a few months. but i think these great epic struggles that worried the markets are starting to fade as a strategic policy. >> do you think we veal the sequester? do you think it happens, greg? >> for a while, yeah. i think on march 1 we begin at least on defense and discretionary spending. if there's enough sidewalking maybe by late...
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Jan 29, 2013
01/13
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>> reporter: you know, that delay of the battle over the debt ceiling until may really did reduce some of the near- term investment pressure. i know we still have to deal with it but it did kind of take the level down a few notches. also, the housing market finally contributing to nick growth instead of dragging it down. and maybe the most important, today we started a federal reserve two-day policy meeting and the fed maintains its low interest rate policies until the unemployment situation improves substantially. so those are really positive forces for the stock market. >> my 401 couple of is loving it. and so am i. but is there any risk because it's going up so quickly? >> well, i think that of course that the folks down in d.c. could turn everything upside-down. they could look at these across- the-board spending cuts and that might not be very investor friendly. the budget negotiations could put a wrinkle into things. additionally, let's look at the small investor. i don't want it blame us but, you know, we're piling into stocks again and it could actually be a negative. in the pa
>> reporter: you know, that delay of the battle over the debt ceiling until may really did reduce some of the near- term investment pressure. i know we still have to deal with it but it did kind of take the level down a few notches. also, the housing market finally contributing to nick growth instead of dragging it down. and maybe the most important, today we started a federal reserve two-day policy meeting and the fed maintains its low interest rate policies until the unemployment...